National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict poor outcome in hospitalised COVID-19 patients in India

Background
While several parameters have emerged as predictors of prognosis of COVID-19, a simple clinical score at baseline might help early risk stratification. We determined the ability of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict poor outcomes among adults with COVID-19.

Methods
A prospective study was conducted on 399 hospitalised adults with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between August and December 2020. Baseline NEWS2 score was determined. Primary outcome was poor outcomes defined as need for mechanical ventilation or death within 28 days. The sensitivity, specificity and Area under the curve were determined for NEWS2 scores of 5 and 6.

Results
Mean age of patients was 55.5 ± 14.8 years and 275 of 399 (68.9%) were male. Overall mortality was 3.8% and 7.5% had poor outcomes. Median (interquartile range) NEWS2 score at admission was 2 (0–6). Sensitivity and specificity of NEWS 2 of 5 or more in predicting poor outcomes was 93.3% (95% CI: 76.5–98.8) and 70.7% (95% CI: 65.7–75.3) respectively [area under curve 0.88 (95% CI: 0.847–0.927)]. Age, baseline pulse rate, baseline oxygen saturation, need for supplemental oxygen and ARDS on chest X ray were independently associated with poor outcomes.

Conclusions
NEWS2 score of 5 or more at admission predicts poor outcomes in patients with COVID-19 with good sensitivity and can easily be applied for risk stratification at baseline. Further studies are needed in the Indian setting to validate this simple score and recommend widespread use.