ARIMA Modelling of Neonatal Mortality in Abia State of Nigeria

In this study, the incidence neonatal mortality in Abia State of Nigeria was considered using data from January 2014 to December 2018. The data was obtained from the Federal Medical Centre, Umuahia in Abia State of Nigeria. The time plot of the data and the ADF test conducted conrmed the series to be stationary. The plots of the ACF and PACF cut o after lags 4 and 1 respectively which suggested ARIMA (1, 0, 4). However, diagnostic checks led us to select ARIMA (1, 0, 1) as the best model to t the data and it was used to make forecast. Our forecasted values indicate there will be a continous decline in the incidence of neonatal mortality in Abia State of Nigeria. Much should be done to even expedite the decrease.